San Diego Market Update
San Diego Market Pulse: Macro Trends, Mortgage Trajectories & August Data
Navigating real estate today comes down to separating market feelings from economic facts. While consumer hesitation is natural with mortgage rates rising and currently in the 7% range, the underlying macroeconomic backdrop remains extraordinarily robust. Driven by Q3 GDP growth around 5%, heavy corporate AI investment, and steady retail spending, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to begin a rate-hike cycle. Because mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield—which is currently weighed down by elevated crude oil prices ($100+ WTI) and geopolitical fallout from the ongoing War in Iran—buyers shouldn't expect mortgage rates to drop below 7% until foreign conflict stabilizes and energy markets cool. The primary indicator governing future Fed moves to watch right now is the 4-week moving average of weekly jobless claims.
For buyers, waiting on the sidelines for 5% mortgage rates in a high-growth economy isn't a practical strategy. A better approach is capitalizing on short-term pullbacks in the 10-year Treasury yield rather than trying to time the market's absolute bottom. For buyers eyeing condos, current inventory levels offer a solid window to negotiate favorable terms. For sellers, strong GDP figures and low unemployment mean local consumer purchasing power remains solid, but they are picky. Taking a historical perspective the underlying housing demand is stable across San Diego despite interest rate pressure.
San Diego August Market Data
Single-Family Detached Homes
Median Sales Price: $1,120,000 (+4.7% Year over Year | -2.0% Month over Month)
Average Days on Market: 35 days (-10.3% YoY)
Original List Price Received: 98.0% (+1.4% YoY)
Condos & Townhomes (Attached)
Median Sales Price: $670,000 (+0.1% YoY | +1.5% MoM)
Average Days on Market: 44 days (+2.3% YoY)
Original List Price Received: 97.2% (+0.2% YoY)
Whether you are evaluating a personal property move or tracking local market performance for your clients, reach out anytime to chat about how these numbers impact specific San Diego neighborhoods.
-Greg
