Market Update: November 2025
San Diego Real Estate Market Update — Told Simply, Clearly, and Honestly
The San Diego market feels different right now. Not chaotic. Not crashing. Just… real.
For the first time in years, the market isn’t sprinting—it’s walking with intention.
Most people spent the last few years waiting for prices to fall, but real estate doesn’t move like a falling rock. It’s a system of pressures: inventory, demand, absorption, affordability, and psychology. When people asked for a “crash,” what they really meant was lower prices.
But something else happened instead.
The Correction Already Happened — Just Not the Way People Expected
Prices didn’t collapse.
Volume did.
What Actually Dropped in 2025
Fewer homes listed
Fewer homes sold
Longer days on market
Buyers paused
Sellers hesitated
This was the correction:
A collapse in activity, not a collapse in values.
Markets That Saw True Price Declines
Tampa
Austin
Phoenix
Markets that overheated the most cooled the hardest.
How San Diego Held Steady
Detached homes slipped just 2–3%.
Condos dipped slightly.
Meanwhile, luxury homes hit record numbers, pulling average prices upward even as the median softened.
The data looks contradictory until you see the truth:
the market isn’t one story—it’s multiple stories happening at once.
Why Buyers Finally Feel More Power
When a market slows, the first shift is not price—it’s time.
Homes are now taking 40–45 days to sell across San Diego.
That gives buyers:
Breathing room
Patience
Options
It also forces sellers to become strategic again.
Nearly 30% of listings reduce their price before finding a buyer—not because values are falling, but because the market no longer tolerates fantasy pricing.
This is a sign of health, not weakness.
The Leading Indicator Most People Miss
If you want a 30–90 day preview of the market, pay attention to:
Mortgage Applications (and Pull-Through Rate)
The pull-through rate shows how many applications turn into closed purchases.
Here’s the pattern:
Rates drop → Demand rises immediately
Demand rises → Absorption rate climbs
Absorption climbs → Inventory tightens
Inventory tightens → Prices rise
This is exactly what pushed pricing upward during COVID.
What’s Happening Now
Applications are ticking up
Rates are drifting down
Buyers are resurfacing
Inventory is not replenishing quickly
The next chapter is already forming beneath the surface.
My Forecast — The Beginning of a New Cycle
Here’s the simplest way to say it:
2025 Was the Bottom (Just Not the Bottom People Expected)
It wasn’t the bottom for prices.
It was the bottom for activity.
After years of a market sprint, 2025 was the exhale.
What Comes Next
2026:
Stable
Low drama
Slow, steady appreciation
Better affordability if wages rise and rates ease
2027:
More meaningful appreciation
Stronger competition
Demand outpacing supply again
San Diego’s fundamentals—limited buildable land, strong job base, lifestyle appeal—are too strong for long-term stagnation.
We're entering the next cycle quietly, without the chaos of 2021, but with far more clarity.
What Smart Buyers and Sellers Are Doing Right Now
They aren’t guessing.
They aren’t trying to time the market.
They’re calibrating.
Smart Buyer Strategies
Taking advantage of increased inventory
Negotiating again
Watching rates closely
Moving before demand accelerates
Focusing on condos and mid-market homes where leverage is strongest
Smart Seller Strategies
Pricing with intention
Testing the market via Compass Private Exclusives
Preparing the home thoroughly before launch
Using lower competition to stand out
Capturing motivated buyers returning early
A smart strategy always beats perfect timing.
If You Want Clarity, I’m Here
Every home, every neighborhood, every timeline is different.
If you want a clean, simple breakdown of what this market means for you—whether you’re buying, selling, or simply evaluating—reach out anytime.
No pressure.
Just a strategic, honest conversation.
— Greg Kuchan
Compass | DRE #01977577
📞 858-361-5568
📧 gregory.kuchan@compass.com
