Market Update: March 2026

Global Volatility, Local Opportunity: The Nuance of the Spring Market

The spring market is officially here, and it is arriving with more nuance than we have seen in years. As we move into the second quarter, the key to success is shifting our mindset from counting our constraints to identifying our opportunities.

While our local market remains our primary focus, we cannot ignore the "black swan" events occurring globally. The escalating conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are hitting homeowners closer to home than just the gas pump. Beyond the surge to $5.36 per gallon at California pumps, the restricted passage is fanning inflation fears that have rattled the bond market.

We are already seeing this geopolitical tension drive up the cost of petrochemical-based building materials—from PVC piping and insulation to roofing and wiring. Furthermore, the resulting "oil shock" has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up, briefly bumping mortgage rates back above that psychological 6% barrier. As of March 12, 2026, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has returned to 6.35%. It is a stark reminder that a disruption thousands of miles away can directly impact your home’s value and your next mortgage payment.

In a market this volatile, trying to "time" the perfect entry point is often a losing game. Expert analysis shows that the best windows for securing lower rates are incredibly fleeting—sometimes lasting only 24 to 72 hours. As market expert Barry Habib recently noted: “Out of the eight best refinance chances... four of them were less than three days, and two were just one day. If you weren't on top of it, you missed it."

This is why we recommend working with lenders who help you establish a "Strike Rate" for every client. Where the lender pre-determines the exact monthly savings you need to achieve your financial goals, and the day you close is actually the day our real work begins. To quote Habib again, "When we get to that opportunity, I will start calling, messaging, emailing you... so when it hits, I can save you money." We monitor the market daily so that when that 24-hour window opens, you are already first in line to strike.

The San Diego Snapshot: February 2026

Despite global volatility, San Diego remains a market of high demand and strategic shifts.

Detached Homes: Median price rose 2.1% to $1,089,795.

Attached Properties: Median price decreased 2.2% to $660,000.

Inventory: Total homes for sale are down 15.4% to 4,220 units.

Days on Market: Average time to sell increased to 44 days, up 15.8%.

I recently returned from the Texas Luxury Summit, where I masterminded with the top agents in the country. Our consensus was clear: the scope of luxury is shifting. We are moving away from "excess for the sake of excess." Instead, high-end buyers are demanding a return to enduring quality and intentional design. In a world of mass production, luxury now means craftsmanship that stands the test of time and spaces designed to enhance how we actually live. This mirrors what I am seeing in San Diego’s coastal enclaves—discerning buyers are no longer just purchasing a zip code; they are investing in a standard of excellence.

What This Means for You This Spring

For Sellers: Your property is a rare commodity with total inventory down over 15%. However, buyers are more sensitive than ever to a home’s condition and design integrity. A sharp, realistic starting price is the only way to spark a competitive offer.

For Buyers: You finally have the leverage of time. With days on market up to 44 days, you have the opportunity to negotiate terms and price credits that were non-existent two years ago. We are currently helping our clients capitalize on this right now, securing major wins by focusing on quality over compromise.

As we navigate the spring market, our focus is on guiding you through intentional choices rather than reacting to broad market momentum. Whether you are prioritizing enduring design or adjusting your leverage in response to global shifts, we are here to provide the stewardship and market depth required to protect your long-term value.

Let’s look at your goals and build a plan that aligns with where you want to be.

No pressure. Just a strategic, honest conversation.

-Greg